{
  "dataset": "nexorev_north_italy_hotel_market_data.json",
  "version": "2026-04-28",
  "status": "public-data pilot backtest fixture",
  "important_note": "This file is a transparent pilot-stage fixture used to display backtest methodology. It combines public tourism/economic source categories with synthetic monthly hotel-market aggregates for North Italy. It is not deployed hotel PMS data and should not be presented as customer proof.",
  "source_categories": [
    "ISTAT tourism statistics",
    "Banca d'Italia international tourism and economic data",
    "ENIT tourism research office",
    "STR-style hotel performance metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR",
    "Skift public hospitality research"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "occupancy_forecast_mape_percent": 9.8,
    "occupancy_forecast_rmse_points": 6.4,
    "revenue_lift_simulation_percent": 7.6,
    "backtest_scope": "North Italy monthly market aggregates, not individual hotel PMS records"
  },
  "monthly_market_backtest": [
    { "month": "Jan", "actual_occupancy": 44, "forecast_occupancy": 47, "market_adr_eur": 94, "baseline_revpar_eur": 41.4, "simulated_revpar_eur": 44.2 },
    { "month": "Feb", "actual_occupancy": 49, "forecast_occupancy": 51, "market_adr_eur": 99, "baseline_revpar_eur": 48.5, "simulated_revpar_eur": 51.1 },
    { "month": "Mar", "actual_occupancy": 53, "forecast_occupancy": 57, "market_adr_eur": 108, "baseline_revpar_eur": 57.2, "simulated_revpar_eur": 60.8 },
    { "month": "Apr", "actual_occupancy": 64, "forecast_occupancy": 61, "market_adr_eur": 128, "baseline_revpar_eur": 81.9, "simulated_revpar_eur": 87.6 },
    { "month": "May", "actual_occupancy": 72, "forecast_occupancy": 75, "market_adr_eur": 146, "baseline_revpar_eur": 105.1, "simulated_revpar_eur": 113.2 },
    { "month": "Jun", "actual_occupancy": 80, "forecast_occupancy": 77, "market_adr_eur": 166, "baseline_revpar_eur": 132.8, "simulated_revpar_eur": 143.6 },
    { "month": "Jul", "actual_occupancy": 88, "forecast_occupancy": 84, "market_adr_eur": 188, "baseline_revpar_eur": 165.4, "simulated_revpar_eur": 176.6 },
    { "month": "Aug", "actual_occupancy": 91, "forecast_occupancy": 88, "market_adr_eur": 194, "baseline_revpar_eur": 176.5, "simulated_revpar_eur": 188.4 },
    { "month": "Sep", "actual_occupancy": 77, "forecast_occupancy": 80, "market_adr_eur": 159, "baseline_revpar_eur": 122.4, "simulated_revpar_eur": 132.1 },
    { "month": "Oct", "actual_occupancy": 63, "forecast_occupancy": 66, "market_adr_eur": 132, "baseline_revpar_eur": 83.2, "simulated_revpar_eur": 89.5 },
    { "month": "Nov", "actual_occupancy": 46, "forecast_occupancy": 50, "market_adr_eur": 96, "baseline_revpar_eur": 44.2, "simulated_revpar_eur": 47.1 },
    { "month": "Dec", "actual_occupancy": 57, "forecast_occupancy": 54, "market_adr_eur": 118, "baseline_revpar_eur": 67.3, "simulated_revpar_eur": 72.2 }
  ]
}