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Pilot Backtest Transparency

Model Performance on Public North Italy Market Data

These results are from backtests on public market data, not deployed hotels. Production results are pending pilot rollout. The referenced data file isnexorev_north_italy_hotel_market_data.json.

Occupancy forecast MAPE
9.8%

Mean absolute percentage error on public-data monthly market backtest

Occupancy forecast RMSE
6.4 pts

Root mean squared error measured in occupancy percentage points

RevPAR lift simulation
+7.6%

Simulated dynamic-pricing lift vs. baseline market ADR, not deployed hotel revenue

Production hotel results
Pending

Requires PMS integration and pilot rollout with real hotel data

Occupancy vs Forecast

The chart compares actual public-market occupancy aggregates with the forecast used in the pilot backtest. This is not hotel PMS data.

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Cyan: actual aggregate occupancy. Purple: forecast occupancy.

ADR Distribution

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RevPAR Lift Simulation

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Simulated lift is calculated from market aggregates and dynamic-pricing guardrails. It should be treated as a pilot hypothesis until hotel PMS pilots produce real outcomes.

Data Limits

  • Backtest data is market-level and public-data based, not individual hotel reservation data.
  • Production deployment requires PMS integration, channel-manager rate feeds, and property-specific guardrails.
  • Revenue lift is simulated and should not be presented as customer revenue or guaranteed performance.
  • First pilot hotels will be used to replace these public-data benchmarks with measured property-level results.
Read methodology and source list